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Model published
Musk trillionaire-threshold engine
A stylized compartment model of how a large pre-existing wealth base can cross a $1tn threshold when a post-listing upside pool moves from unpriced potential into market-marked wealth, then either becomes a durable threshold cushion or is pulled into volatility drag.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Unpriced upside pool | — | 0.98 |
| Market-marked uplift | — | 0.02 |
| Durable threshold cushion | — | 0 |
| Volatility drag | — | 0 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| base | repriced | repricing * base |
| repriced | trillionaire_zone | threshold_conversion * repriced |
| repriced | base | valuation_fade * repriced |
| trillionaire_zone | volatility_drag | haircut * trillionaire_zone |
| trillionaire_zone | repriced | profit_taking * trillionaire_zone |
| volatility_drag | repriced | recovery * volatility_drag |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| repricing | Weekly rate at which unpriced upside is marked into market value. | 0.09 | 0.02 – 0.24 |
| threshold_conversion | Weekly rate at which marked value becomes durable threshold cushion. | 0.055 | 0.01 – 0.14 |
| valuation_fade | Weekly rate at which marked value fades back into disputed upside. | 0.018 | 0.005 – 0.08 |
| haircut | Weekly rate at which a threshold cushion is eroded by volatility or discounting. | 0.028 | 0.005 – 0.1 |
| profit_taking | Weekly rate at which threshold cushion becomes less durable but remains marked. | 0.016 | 0.005 – 0.07 |
| recovery | Weekly rate at which discounted value recovers into marked wealth. | 0.035 | 0.005 – 0.12 |
User-Facing States
Modeled net worth 813 + (repriced + trillionaire_zone) * N
$1tn threshold 1000
Durable cushion trillionaire_zone * N
Volatility drag volatility_drag * N
Unpriced upside base * N
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