Yellowstone willow recovery trajectory
A population of streamside (riparian) willow stands moving between three states after the 1995 wolf reintroduction: Stunted (suppressed by elk browsing), Rebounding (escaping browsing, growing), and Tall canopy (recovered). The wolf reintroduction is an action marker that lifts the 'release' rate (less browsing). Two back-flows encode the 'context dependence' the reanalysis stresses: rebrowse (rebounding knocked back to stunted) and dieback (tall canopy thinned back to stunted by drought/poor hydrology/returning browsers). Default parameters reflect the modest, spatially-variable recovery the MacNulty/Hobbs reanalysis describes; a low-setback, high-maturation scenario reproduces the 'strong park-wide cascade' story (Ripple et al.).
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Stunted willow (browsed) | — | 0.95 |
| Rebounding willow | — | 0.05 |
| Tall willow canopy | — | 0 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| stunted | rebounding | release * stunted |
| rebounding | tall | mature * rebounding |
| rebounding | stunted | rebrowse * rebounding |
| tall | stunted | dieback * tall |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| release | Rate at which stunted willow escapes browsing and starts growing (the wolf-sensitive lever). | 0.05 | 0 – 0.5 |
| mature | Rate at which rebounding willow matures into tall canopy. | 0.08 | 0 – 0.5 |
| rebrowse | Rate at which rebounding willow is knocked back to stunted (context dependence). | 0.1 | 0 – 0.5 |
| dieback | Rate at which tall canopy is thinned back to stunted (drought, hydrology, returning browsers) — recovery reversibility. | 0.05 | 0 – 0.5 |
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