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Model published
Space Mission Pipeline 2026
The space economy's mission pipeline the week SpaceX debuted on the NASDAQ and NASA named its Artemis III crew: concepts get funded into development, hardware moves through testing (anomalies recycle it), and operational missions seed the next generation of concepts.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Concepts | — | 0.4 |
| In Development | — | 0.3 |
| Testing | — | 0.15 |
| Operational | — | 0.15 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| concept | development | fund * concept |
| development | testing | build * development |
| testing | operational | certify * testing |
| testing | development | anomaly * testing |
| operational | concept | learn * operational |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| fund | funding moving concepts into development | 0.08 | 0 – 1 |
| build | development reaching test readiness | 0.1 | 0 – 1 |
| certify | tests passing into operations | 0.12 | 0 – 1 |
| anomaly | test anomalies sending hardware back | 0.05 | 0 – 1 |
| learn | operational lessons seeding new concepts | 0.06 | 0 – 1 |
User-Facing States
Concepts concept * N
In Development development * N
Testing testing * N
Operational operational * N
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