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Model published
Millipede land-first interpretation pipeline
A stylized evidence-flow model for the story: research attention moves from a fossil-only view, through molecular-clock signal and complete order sampling, into a confident millipede-first land narrative. It is not a literal population history; it models interpretation as evidence resolution improves.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Fossil-only timeline | — | 0.96 |
| Hidden clock signal | — | 0.04 |
| Complete living-order tree | — | 0 |
| Millipede-first narrative | — | 0 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| fossil_only | clock_signal | resolution_rate * fossil_only * (clock_signal + 0.03) |
| clock_signal | complete_tree | resolution_rate * clock_signal |
| complete_tree | land_first | resolution_rate * complete_tree |
| land_first | complete_tree | scrutiny_rate * land_first |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| resolution_rate | Overall rate at which genomic sampling plus fossil calibration resolves the early-land signal. | 0.075 | 0.02 – 0.18 |
| scrutiny_rate | Ongoing pull back toward the underlying tree as the claim is checked. | 0.01 | 0 – 0.04 |
User-Facing States
Fossil-only view fossil_only * N
Hidden clock signal clock_signal * N
Complete tree signal complete_tree * N
Millipede-first signal land_first * N
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