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How a flat CPI headline becomes an offset story
Interpretation-flow model for the May 2026 UK inflation release. It is not a CPI forecasting model; it shows how evidence changes the reading from a flat headline toward an offset frame.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Flat headline read | — | 0.94 |
| Transport pressure read | — | 0.06 |
| Food offset read | — | 0 |
| Balanced offset frame | — | 0 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| headline_flat_read | transport_pressure_read | headline_to_transport_rate * headline_flat_read |
| transport_pressure_read | food_offset_read | transport_to_food_offset_rate * transport_pressure_read |
| food_offset_read | balanced_offset_frame | resolution_rate * food_offset_read |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| headline_to_transport_rate | Daily rate at which the flat headline read picks up the transport/fuel pressure. | 0.045 | 0.01 – 0.12 |
| transport_to_food_offset_rate | Daily rate at which transport pressure is paired with food-offset evidence. | 0.065 | 0.01 – 0.16 |
| resolution_rate | Daily rate at which the evidence resolves into a balanced offset frame. | 0.045 | 0.01 – 0.14 |
User-Facing States
Flat headline read headline_flat_read * N
Transport pressure read transport_pressure_read * N
Food offset read food_offset_read * N
Balanced offset frame balanced_offset_frame * N
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