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Model published
Youth vape-name attraction pathway
This is a stylized policy-mechanism model, not a forecast or clinical estimate.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Exposed but not engaged | — | 0.96 |
| Curious | — | 0.03 |
| Experimenting | — | 0.01 |
| Regular nicotine use | — | 0 |
| Disengaged | — | 0 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| exposed | curious | appeal * exposed * curious |
| curious | experimenting | trial_rate * curious |
| curious | disengaged | curiosity_fade * curious |
| experimenting | regular | habit_rate * experimenting |
| experimenting | disengaged | dropout_rate * experimenting |
| regular | disengaged | quit_rate * regular |
| disengaged | exposed | re_exposure * disengaged |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| appeal | Per-day attraction strength of the naming environment. | 0.08 | 0.01 – 0.2 |
| trial_rate | Per-day progression from curiosity to experimentation. | 0.035 | 0.005 – 0.1 |
| curiosity_fade | Per-day fading of curiosity into disengagement. | 0.025 | 0.005 – 0.1 |
| habit_rate | Per-day progression from experimenting to regular use. | 0.018 | 0.002 – 0.06 |
| dropout_rate | Per-day dropout from experimentation. | 0.04 | 0.005 – 0.12 |
| quit_rate | Per-day movement from regular use to disengagement. | 0.01 | 0.002 – 0.05 |
| re_exposure | Per-day re-entry from disengagement to exposure. | 0.005 | 0.001 – 0.03 |
User-Facing States
Exposed but not engaged exposed * N
Curious curious * N
Experimenting experimenting * N
Regular nicotine use regular * N
Disengaged disengaged * N
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