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DarkNOC Level 4 Theft-to-OPEX Protection Model
CIDX/ComDyn scenario model for a South Africa infrastructure-protection proposal: theft pressure becomes operating cost unless RF sensing, DarkNOC map evidence, and DOIL patrol increase early detection. Public-demo model only, not live Vodacom telemetry.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Protected capital | — | 0.35 |
| Exposed capital | — | 0.45 |
| Theft / vandalism pressure | — | 0.12 |
| Detected and contained | — | 0.03 |
| OPEX burden | — | 0.05 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| protected | exposed | erosion * protected |
| exposed | pressure | attack_pressure * exposed |
| pressure | contained | rf_detection * pressure |
| pressure | opex_burden | missed_detection * pressure |
| contained | protected | doil_patrol * contained |
| contained | exposed | clear_no_harden * contained |
| opex_burden | exposed | restoration_clear * opex_burden |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| erosion | Daily erosion of protected capital from demand, weather, and backlog. | 0.018 | 0 – 0.05 |
| attack_pressure | Daily movement from exposed capital into theft/vandalism pressure. | 0.032 | 0 – 0.08 |
| rf_detection | Early detection rate from RF/site sensing and DarkNOC area context. | 0.045 | 0 – 0.35 |
| missed_detection | Rate at which missed pressure becomes active OPEX burden. | 0.08 | 0 – 0.14 |
| doil_patrol | Rate at which automated patrol turns contained pressure back into protected capital. | 0.11 | 0 – 0.35 |
| clear_no_harden | Contained cases cleared without durable hardening. | 0.02 | 0 – 0.1 |
| restoration_clear | Emergency restoration clears active OPEX burden back into exposed service. | 0.025 | 0 – 0.12 |
User-Facing States
Protected capital protected * N
Exposed capital exposed * N
Theft / vandalism pressure pressure * N
Detected and contained contained * N
OPEX burden opex_burden * N
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