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Model published
World Cup Fever 2026
How tournament fever spreads through a host nation as the 2026 FIFA World Cup unfolds across North America — casual viewers get pulled in by word of mouth, some become superfans, and enthusiasm cools between match days.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Casual Viewers | — | 0.85 |
| Engaged Fans | — | 0.12 |
| Superfans | — | 0.03 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| casual | engaged | excite * casual * engaged |
| casual | engaged | draw * casual |
| engaged | superfan | devotion * engaged |
| superfan | engaged | burnout * superfan |
| engaged | casual | cooloff * engaged |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| excite | word-of-mouth excitement per matchday | 0.45 | 0 – 1 |
| draw | baseline pull of the tournament | 0.03 | 0 – 1 |
| devotion | engaged fans turning superfan | 0.09 | 0 – 1 |
| burnout | superfans cooling to engaged | 0.06 | 0 – 1 |
| cooloff | engaged fans drifting back to casual | 0.07 | 0 – 1 |
User-Facing States
Casual Viewers casual * N
Engaged Fans engaged * N
Superfans superfan * N
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