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Cape Town Connectivity Resilience Signal Model - Clean Baseline
High-level compartment model for the Vodacom resilience sidecar. Unit is demand-weighted Cape Town / Western Cape service areas. Public evidence supports the pressure categories and response levers; rates are scenario assumptions, not live Vodacom telemetry. This version has no default markers so baseline and intervention simulations can be compared cleanly.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| At-risk demand areas | — | 0.92 |
| Stressed / disruption-prone areas | — | 0.05 |
| Reinforced service areas | — | 0.03 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| at_risk | stressed | stress_rate * at_risk |
| stressed | reinforced | hardening_rate * stressed |
| stressed | at_risk | quick_restore_rate * stressed |
| reinforced | at_risk | demand_erosion_rate * reinforced |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| stress_rate | Daily rate at which public-news pressure turns at-risk demand areas into stressed areas. | 0.035 | 0.005 – 0.12 |
| hardening_rate | Daily rate at which investment and operational readiness reinforce stressed areas. | 0.08 | 0.01 – 0.24 |
| quick_restore_rate | Daily rate for restoration without full hardening. | 0.055 | 0.005 – 0.18 |
| demand_erosion_rate | Daily rate at which growth and recurring stress pull reinforced areas back into at-risk status. | 0.025 | 0.005 – 0.08 |
User-Facing States
At-risk demand areas at_risk * N
Stressed areas stressed * N
Reinforced service areas reinforced * N
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