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Quantum Adoption Curve — Post-CINECA
Enterprise quantum-computing adoption after Italy switched on two quantum machines at CINECA (Pasqal's neutral-atom SOL and IQM's superconducting NOX): organizations explore, pilot hybrid workloads, a few reach quantum advantage — and skepticism recycles the disillusioned.
Compartments
| Name | Color | Initial Fraction |
|---|---|---|
| Classical Only | — | 0.8 |
| Exploring | — | 0.14 |
| Hybrid Pilots | — | 0.05 |
| Quantum Advantage | — | 0.01 |
Flows
| From | To | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| classical | exploring | curiosity * classical |
| exploring | hybrid | pilot * exploring |
| hybrid | advantage | breakthrough * hybrid |
| exploring | classical | skepticism * exploring |
| hybrid | exploring | setback * hybrid |
| advantage | hybrid | hype_reset * advantage |
Parameters
| Name | Label | Default | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| curiosity | organizations starting to explore quantum | 0.06 | 0 – 1 |
| pilot | explorers launching hybrid pilots | 0.09 | 0 – 1 |
| breakthrough | pilots reaching real advantage | 0.05 | 0 – 1 |
| skepticism | explorers retreating to classical | 0.07 | 0 – 1 |
| setback | pilot setbacks recycling to exploration | 0.04 | 0 – 1 |
| hype_reset | advantage claims revised back to pilots | 0.03 | 0 – 1 |
User-Facing States
Classical Only classical * N
Exploring exploring * N
Hybrid Pilots hybrid * N
Quantum Advantage advantage * N
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